Well, I can't tell what the weather will do in three weeks. I did end up booking it yesterday, from Oct 4-14. Awesome flights (early am departure, 9 pm return) so we get the full 10 days.
I've been watching updates from staff on Facebook and it looks like it's back to normal, excepting the palapas on the beach. Hopefully they'll mostly be back in 3 weeks, but it won't ruin anything if they're not there. I may buy a cheap, lightweight umbrella to bring with me, just in case.